It’d be journalistic malpractice to ignore the tragic Orlando massacre. But there’s really not a political angle that resonates, so this will be personal.
For two decades, I’ve watched that sometimes-clumsy weekend dance: gay and inquiring men (and some women) go to gay clubs to meet other gay and inquiring folks. There are generational, racial and social cliques within that world, in every large city in America. But nobody ever expected that dynamic to turn ugly, violent and tragic.
Ever.
We have a history of looking over our shoulders far more often than our straight counterparts – on the political front and on the personal safety front. But this tragic event has a uniquely common touchpoint for our community. Gay clubs are a part of our culture, and this attack strikes at every LGBTQ/Ally heart.
The fallout was and will continue to be epic. Anger, frustration, overwhelming grief – it’s like we all need a group therapy session.
Hundreds of public memorial services. Politicians carefully (and some, not so carefully) weigh in with words of sorrow. Sometimes it’s fun to watch politicians stumble and succeed on large public stories like this, but not now. There’s no joy watching candidates swing and miss when they speak on subjects like mass murder. Because nobody wins. Everyone loses.
In the Silver Lining Department: Donald Trump may be a magical winner in the public dialogue over Orlando. If only because it diverted our attention from his wretched racist observations about a federal judge.
A lot of spilled blood will do that.
The Trump roller coaster
If ever there were a year in which YOUR vote counts, this is it. And we’re seeing an epic campaign at the top.
At press time, Republican presidential candidate Donald J. Trump had, within a week, tweeted and insulted his way into a 12-point disadvantage against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. That happened on the heels of unspeakable tragedy in Orlando. Public emotions were running high, and instead of turning it down notch, he doubled-down when he claimed President Obama had some sort of inside knowledge of pending disaster.
Said The Donald, just one week before Orlando, to national GOP leaders: “I understand the mantle you’ve handed me, I respect it, and I’ll make you proud.” His unfavorable ratings among key constituencies were, as of June 16, this:
Hispanics: 89%
Women: 77%
Under 40: 75%
Independents: 68%
Non-College Whites: 53%
White Men, All Ages: 52%
Now, keep in mind – those last two categories were his staples during a rough-and-tumble primary season. As he narrowed the field of 17 to just himself, Trump had multiple targets for public ridicule, and it seemed to work. Trump was on fire, and the main fuel was over-40 white males.
But once the field pivoted to the presumptive Democratic nominee, he failed to match the shift with proper rhetoric. I’d call it a freshman mistake, but that would insult freshmen everywhere. This is more like a third-grade mistake – know your opponent, know your audience.
By late July, when both parties hold national conventions, Trump could be in the crosshairs of solid Republicans who’ve had enough. Time will tell.
If not, or if he doesn’t alter his message, the down-ticket disaster is looming. Stay tuned.
